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Tony's Blog
Finally, I took time to access new feature of blogspot. At last, there is a feature that let me to jump break each section. This time, no one will be confused. The bonus for each movie and drama will be replaced by my remark, which will be more descriptive.
In few months ago, someone asked me why I don't focus this blog solely on economics and set another blog for movies review. Well, I never intend to write entirely economics in my blog. It is just to write my thought that happen to be economics.
Tony's Life
Every morning, after I wake up, I would surf online. It consist of updates of anime, manga, WSJ Asia(and Europe), New York Times, TNP, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Guardian, Reuter, soccernet.com, skysports.com, Mankiw's blog, DeLong's blog, Krugman's Blog, Brookings and few investment-related blogs. I am watching less dramas and movies nowadays. I will be reading more books. At the same time, I will be spending time seriously on Econometrics and Industrial Economics because some friends are studying them. I love to discuss the problems with them. That is how i spend my leisure time. I never like to read Straits Times because their choice of articles are uninteresting.
Recently, I managed to keep touch with my primary school classmates, Ben Ho, Lionel Heng, Edward Kok. I am the most surprised when Edward expresses his interest in investment. Ben Ho is now on postgraduate scholarship to LSE after working few years in public sector. It seems that Lionel Heng has finished his scholarship in US and work in public sector. Edward is working in his small business. That is impressive start. I hope that Melvin will be like them too since Melvin is very interested in econs and he is talent for understanding econs.
I was surprised that there is so much changes in Security Analysis 6th Edition compared to 2nd edition. Since the stuffs in 2nd edition seems to be alien especially the way how profit and loss account and balance sheet are structured., I decided to buy Security Analysis 6th Edition! It is because Security Analysis 6th edition is written in modern terms, which I can easily understand.
Tony's Final Undergraduate Year
The above picture illustrates when I have taken my paper during last May and June. I read lecturers' notes for all my subjects I have taken for 2 years. I find them lack of details: fuzzy picture of the concepts/theories. Armed with textbooks, I decide to take note of relevant theories/concepts for my exam preparation. This enables me to fast track the theories I want to recall again.
Let recall what desk I sit on each paper. In Macroeconomics paper, my desk number is 1012 and row number is 19. At that time, the announcer constantly remind the candidates in the hall that calculator is not allowed. I am quite stumped on why candidates never follow the instruction - No calculator- from the notice that was given to us by mail. Giving benefit for this doubt, they are either more interested to hope for any rule error or acting as a kid (ignoring the rule). In Financial Intermediation paper, my desk number is 1050 and row number is 20. This paper burn my arm's and hand's muscle. Even though I can do 4 required questions, in the end, I only do 3 within 3 hours. I always wonder whether I do need to omit some facts. These facts are something I always feel compelled to write. In Corporate Finance paper, my desk number is 2534 and row number is 47. For this paper, I have very little time to recap all the stuffs I want to remember with pure understanding. At that hall, there are approximately 70% of people taking Corporate Finance paper and the remaining ones taking Financial Management paper. In Investment Management paper, my desk number is 808 and row number is 15. This paper is the usual one like last year paper. All these papers (above) I have taken are held in Expo. In Valuation and Securities Analysis paper, the desk number is 48. The paper is held in Starhub Centre. Over there, I had a good idea about the size of the classroom Kaplan students sat for the class. I also discover that law paper(I cannot remember which law paper) is also held in the same location at the same time as my paper.
After Valuation and Securities Analysis paper, I text to Melvin, wishing him good luck for his monetary economics paper which is held in afternoon at the same place. Then, I walked around Orchard and Bugis for relaxation. Today, I am doing Macro note based on latest syllabus for my friend who failed Macro this year.
Vishal's Facebook Message Status
Few days ago, I saw Vishal's message status in the facebook. His message is as follows:
Life takes your dreams and turns them upside down. Friends talk about you when your not around....People make promises they just cant keep .....I've come to realize... talk is CHEAP....
I felt him. I remembered one time where Vishal, Kelly, Suliana and me were at Mcdonalds at Albert Park. Dung texted me through MSN when I was using laptop. Dung did not know who were with me at that time. Dung expressed his disgust to me through MSN. Vishal saw what Dung texted me. Vishal decided to play fun with him as if I was typing.
This incident really tells a lot about the second statement in the above quote. It is always the case that your friends will do the same to you.
About dreams and promises, I will like to talk about Shigeno Goro in Major anime. He has a dream. His dream is to play against excellent baseball players and he want to play against Gibson Sr (legendary baseball player in this anime show). During his kid days, Goro played so hard to win the tournment. He got shoulder injury. After that, he moved to another state to live. He was supposed to take a rest and he decide to take a chance to throw the ball for his new team. It is because the opponent is stronger. As a result, without no rest from throwing ball, he cannot use his right hand to throw. He was distraught. Attempting to keep the baseball dream, he train 200% hard to use his left hand: use left hand to write, use left hand to do weighting and etc. In one year later, he can use his left hand. It is almost miracle.
When his junor high school faced Kaido junior high school in the tournment, his school lost so miserably. Kaido school has been hiring best baseball players all over Japan. After that, he decide to challenge Kaido high school by entering kaido as a student. There are three types of baseball teams in Kaido: 1) first-string team, 2) 2nd-string team and 3) 3rd-string team. Nobody know Goro and so, he was dumped into third-string team. He decide to drag 3rd-string team by bragging his throwing skills to win 2nd-string team and then 1st-string team. Finally, he did it! After that, he left Kaido High School for no-name High school. It is because it is boring to play with best baseball players. Therefore, he prefers to play against them. At this point, he discovered that no-name high school has no baseball team. Wanting to play in the tournment, he decided to form a baseball team. With some players who never play baseball in the team, he drag his team until his team met Kaido.
After that, Goro decide to fly to America to play baseball there. Normally, japanese baseball lovers would start their professional career in Japan and then to America. Goro took a odd decision. It was tough path. He was shocked that there are many players who are better than him. He struggled and survive in the tough American professional baseball path.
As you see Goro, dreams does make your life upside down. If you don't work hard, you can never realise your dream. About his promise, Goro did fulfill his promise to get famous baseball player to sign on the baseball. This signed baseball was given to his friend by Goro. If you make a promise, you must work hard to fulfill it even if it is hard to do so. Lastly, Warren Buffett studied Security Analysis seriously for many years (during his schooling at Columbia Business School, his working period in Graham's firm and his own investment fund) and he is successful in his equity investment and, to small extent, fixed income investment.
Not only this, many people have their own struggles. Some of them perserve and got their dream and others failed to do so because it seems impossible due to their constraints. Let look the following quote about the Emauel Derman's life that I learn from his book.
At registration on the first day of my first semester at Columbia, my assigned advisor was Professor Henry Foley, himself a near-famous physicist who had been part of a classic 1940s experiment that verified Feynman's Nobel Prize-winnin theory of electrons. Foley, a charimingly cynical man, quizzed me briefly about my knowledge of atomic physics and discover how little I had learned in Cape Town about the details of the spin-orbit interactions of electrons. Then he commanded me to register for G4015, the introductory Columbia graduate course in atomic physics and quantum mechanics. Most physics majors at American schools has taken the equivalent subject in their junior or senior year of college, so here I was starting off a year or more beind the rest of the pack. It was disheartening setback, the beginning of three long, tedious, and unexpected years of coursework and examinations at a time when I had expected to soon embark on original reserch.
Tony's Dream
Talking about myself, I want to form a small team - 2-3 people- for equity investment. I read how Warren Buffett did his equity investment after Graham's investment firm closed down. I have this thought because nobody in the investment industry will give you such chance. I should start small in few month time. I have some friends who are really talented and smart. Unfortunately, they are interested in something else. It is hard to find someone who is very interested in investment. I am still looking for such friend who is interested in investment and has investment knowledge. I aim to combine some academic stuffs with practical stuffs together for my equity investment. Sooner or later, on my desk, there are few books that I will use again and again seriously. They are Security Analysis 2nd edition, Security Analysis 6th Edition, The Intelligent Investor, Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation 3rd Edition, and Business Analysis and Valuation 4th edition.
Humans and their behaviours
I find 99% of my friends common humans. However, there is one friend of mine, who is so wierd, silly, and odd one. His name is Yeo Zhen Wei. Few years ago, he wrote vulgar comments on his own class which include me. I always wonder why he lacks a touch of reality and has such mental problem. I think it is apt to write about him, should you have such a friend similar to him. It is really rare person in the earth that behave like that. I shall write some scenarios about him in chronological order in each paragraph.
Zhen Wei usually ask me or Eugene to solve a simple accounting question. When we demonstrate how to answer the question, he will say ok. The next thing, he asks us another question that has similiar pattern as the previous question he asks. Logically, he should have answer it by replicating similar method of answering but he fails to recognise it. It is a sign of unwillingness not to study accounting seriously or laziness to think. Every time he does not know how to do, he would 'haunt' Eugene by SMS and me by MSN. Practically, Zhen Wei has too many questions to ask. What about the rest of the class such as Adeline, Linda, Ka Ho, and etc? Even they are unsure how to answer, they are willing to think how to answer the accounting questions. Besides that, they are willing to discuss with Eugene and me about accounting clearly. Zhen Wei's behaviour is very different from their behaviours in terms of seriousness and friendliness.
Zhen Wei told me that he wanted to have a girlfriend/wife who was good in Maths. It was because she could teach or share the same interest of Maths. If he had such interest in Maths, he could have doing very well for Maths subject. But he didn't. I suspect that it was an illusion. Despite of this criteria, Zhen Wei told me that he considered Adeline and wanted to woo her. The shocking thing is that Adeline is not strong in Maths but probably average academically. That was some kind of stupid thoughts.
Zhen Wei told me that when he saw our classmate's Yang Long, who also saw him. Yang Long ignored him and Zhen Wei concluded from this action, telling me that Yang Long hate him. I told him diplomatically that Yang Long don't hate him. Just that, Yang Long does not feel like talking to him. Despite of my assurance, he just gave vular comment about Yang Long. It is nothing that we can assure Zhen Wei. Zhen Wei continued to be like this.
Zhen Wei told me that he wants to learn how to play CS so that he can make friend with Ka Ho, Edwin, and Yang Long. This way, if Zhen Wei has played CS, Zhen Wei can talk with them about CS. I was stunned. I do not need to play CS to make friend with them even though I do not like CS game. Normally, if we want to make friend with someone, we would talk with someone about any topic that we usually think of. As for myself, the first time I met Melvin is when I came to Micro class 1 hour earlier than the schedule lesson, he also came about few mins later (while I was reading Mark's note). We didn't not make friend right away at that time. Only after we met each other very often in library, then I talked with Melvin in the Micro class whether he has done all the tutorial questions. After that, we talk as much as we can think of.
Zhen Wei gave a lot of vulgar comments about all of our classmates including me, our teachers and our class itself. It was already crazy. As a result, Zhen Wei created a barrier between him and the class. No one is willing to sit with him or talk with him frequently/on the regular basis. One time, our class made a dessert during their cooking class (CCA). Our classmates shared it with us (we are not in cooking class). We were on the ground floor, near the teacher office. Zhen Wei was on 3rd floor, standing near the rails. He saw us there. Ka Ho asked him to come down and eat by hand gesture. But Zhen Wei stand there, staring us. It was really funny moment. Eventually, there was strain between Zhen Wei and class. As a result, he complained to the admin about the class. Therefore, this results asking form teacher to educate us to be friends. Obviously, it is no brainer thing. Zhen Wei is the one making things unfriendly and yet he want to make friends despite of that.
When the whole class graduated, some of us keep in touch with me by MSN. When some of us were studying for diploma, Sharon told me that Zhen Wei changed the course from one poly to another poly. This was done by asking help from MP. We were stunned. Few days ago (from today), he also told me this thing. He even claimed that it is special MP: some kind of DMP (I cannot recall the exact letters).
When I unblocked Zhen Wei in MSN after I graduated from degree because I did not carry any grudges, Zhen Wei began to MSN me very often. When he saw my MSN nick 'I graduated', he asked me what type of degree and quizzed whether it is master degree. I replied me that it is just Bacholor degree, not master degree. He asked me whether I have a plan to study master degree. I said that I would study if I have such opportunity. I even said my remark that master degree was not a value-added thing. Zhen Wei disagreed. I do not know what he interpret my word 'value-added'. What i meant by value-added is that there are too few positions for top-tier career and middle-tier career, the return of investment may not necessarily promising. That is, some people, who graduate from master degree, cannot get these positions. In other words, only few out of 10 people can get such positions. The result of the remaining out of 10 people is that they will apply the positions that undergraduates can get. Unfortunately, I did not have a chance to say this view of value added thing. Zhen Wei claimed that it was hard to survive without master degree. It was absolute illogical. If we interpreted this as unable to find a job, then it was illogical by itself. There were so many people who have no master degree have a job. If we interpreted that comment as the pay is too low, it was also illogical to some extent. There were so many people, who have no master degree command nice pay. Look at Bill Gates and Michael Dell. They had no master degree and yet they were successful businessmen. If they were special case, let look at some guys. Junbin change his car from some kind of honda car to S2000 car few days ago: he has no degree or diploma at all. A manager in insurance firm commands 14k on comission basis due to his sale of financial products. There are so many real-life examples. All that lead to one question. Since he was currently studying diploma in IT, what kind of job experience he did have: NS? Private Tutor? He interpreted his job experience very badly. Poor and completely wrong intrepretation. As a result, despite of these real-life example, he concluded that people who never had master degree were weaklings. That was shocking comment.
Zhen Wei told me that he did not like soft skills because he fared badly. Obviously, as we could see the above scenarios, he failed everywhere regarding soft skills. Becaue of poor result on soft skills, he concluded that soft skills are not important. I told him that soft skills were important. I offerred him a simple real-life example that many CEOs have good soft skills to negotiate deals/projects with other CEOs. Once again, he made illogical remark.
When Zhen Wei saw my MSN message that I study Econometrics on my own, he told me education should be about going to school and learn. It is prefectly ok but each course has its own limited number of modules to be taught. We cannot afford to apply another course after we graduated. On top of that, there are so many people who self study the subjects they are interested in. Let look at Roger B. Myerson, Nobel Prize in Economics winner. There was no game theory course in Roger's school, Harvard. Therefore, he began to self study game theory on his own. He tried to understand the existing theories develped by game theorists. If it is one-off thing. Then we can consider an experience by Emanual Derman. Let me summarise his experience in my own words and cite some of his statements. Derman was waiting year after year for the lecturers to teach the things he can handle. (This is typical behaviour in many courses in my degree school) Derman never thought of learnings things on their own. He discovered that students in America learn things on his own. The only time Derman self-study is when he was studying unified field theories of gravitation and electromagnetism for his honours' thesis. On top of that, Derman discovered that American graduate students were so indepedent to use textbooks to study. It was because Derman and students at University of Cape Town (South Africa) treated textbooks as auxiliary material. Therefore, they including Derman took careful lecturer notes and studied them throughly. In Derman's second week at Columbia, he was shocked to discover that one assigned homework problem was totally unrelated to any material covered in class. Thinking that the professor has erred, Derman queried Ete. Ete told Derman that the relevant material could be found in the last section of the second chapter of our textbook. Derman was dismayed that at the notion that someone might set problems on topics that were never discussed in class. As a result, Derman focus both on textbook reading and note-taking. These are good example why we should learn how to self-study regardless of whether it is in syllabus or not.
Zhen Wei was so proud that he dared to tell his poly to cut the duration of vacation short. He summed up that poly did not allow and people who did not make this proposal were weaklings. He didn't elaborate. But it is easy to see. Let assume that poly vacation is 1 or 2 month(s). He wanted poly to cut it down to just few weeks. Given this view of thought, I told him that to make the proposal successful require him to persuade every poly student to sign the petition. Aw, he has silly mental thing.
Lastly, today, Zhen Wei MSNed me that his close friends rebutted that his comments were not so appropriate. He asked me how come? The answer itself was so obvious.
All these scenarios should sum up to the most shocking person in the world with this kind of mental thing.
Nicholas Tse
Finally, Nicholas released his album this year after a long break from music recording. Surprisingly, his album shows a mature Nicholas. It seems that thinking of family matures Nicholas quite a lot. His youthful vocal singing (that can be found from Jade Butterfly, Viva, and older songs) is gone. These days, Nicholas Tse is spending more time in acting.
Daniel Chan
Once again, Daniel Chan released his new mandarin album this year after a long break. He is back to asia-wide music recording industry. His singing is the same but he has more freedom to choose the songs to sing for the album. There is not much things to say about him. I liked his 'If' song alot.
Books
Book Title: Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives The Economy and Why It Matters For Global Capitalism
Published Date: 18 February 2009
Authors: George Akerlof and Robert Shiller
My Comment:
It is one grand fine book about two authors’ attempts to connect psychology to Macroeconomics theory. Akerlof is best known for his theory of asymmetric information regarding ‘lemon’ market. Shiller is probably known for his work towards behavioural economics in my humble opinion. Animal spirits was first coined by John Maynard Keynes, who he could not explain such strange phenomenon he noticed during his time. Subsequently, today, Akerlof and Shiller tried to relate current crisis, particularly sub-prime and credit crunch, as well as previous major crisis such as Great Depression as an example of how to explain the existence of animal spirits. Most interesting part is that both authors attempts to talk about money illusion. Finally, they prefer to use psychology research works and real-life stories to illustrate animal spirits that are missing in the modern Macroeconomics theory.
Anyone will find this book easy to read, even without the background of economics. People, who like economics, should read this too. It is because it gives a touch of reality towards our ideal Macroeconomics analysis.
Rating:8/10
Book Title: Security Analysis: The Classic 1940 Edition
Authors: Benjamin Graham and David Dodd
My Comment:
After reading the whole book, it is exceptional book. The book seriously considers psychology in the overall analysis as a qualitative analysis. On top of that, Graham carefully considers and shows us the pros and cons of the methods that exist during his time. Finally, he shows his doubt about mathematical and statistical models regarding of its accuracy and its methodology.
It is not easy to read for anyone. As far as I believe, it requires an understanding of principles of finance, corporate finance/financial management, financial accounting, and introductory microeconomics in order to grasp what security analysis under Graham and Dodd context is about. I plan to re-read it in the future.
Rating:9/10
Book Title: International Economics
Author: Paul Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld
My Comment:
It is excellent book. There is touch of reality whereby the authors explain the purpose of each country's policy. They show the effect of each country's policy. It is really insightful to see how gold system, bimetallic system, and monetary system work. Finally, I learn briefly how to use AA-DD model. In my opinion, AA-DD model offer more options to manipulate than IS-LM-BP model.
Rating:9/10
Movies and Drama
20th Century Boys: The Last Hope
Synopsis:
In the second instalment of 20th Century Boys movie, the story focus more on grown Kanna. It tells what Kanna will do in order to protect Kenji’s reputation. At the same time, what the Friend’s next move will be. The other alive members in the Kenji’s gang are still trying to find out who Friend is. The truth about the identity of Friend is slowly unfolding. What lies ahead on the path of learning the identity of Friend…
Rating:6/10
Remark: It creates a fashionable curiosity of the identity of Friend in the mind of people who have never read the manga of 20th Century Boys.
Investigator Mariko Season 1 [科捜研の女 1](Japanese Drama 1999)
Synopsis:
This drama show is surrounded around Mariko, who uses science to investigate the criminal cases as forensics scientist. There are several cases to be solved. However, there is final case in this season 1 that span within 3 episodes. From this viewpoint, the mystery is solved by science logically…
Rating: 7/10
Remark: There are interesting murders especially one of these cases that was murdered by means of science. Off the record, I wonder whether this show was copied by TVB show who also focus on forensics.
Partner [파트너](Korean Drama 2009)
Synopsis extracted from wiki.d-addicts.com:
"Who is your partner?" When you take a look at the definition of ‘Partner’, it gives you synonyms such as colleague, sharer, spouse, and accomplice. Partner is a person who is strongly associated with me; the one who knows me very well and stays by my side. The word ‘Partner’ takes a different meaning when it is used in law firm. Partners are the people who survived from the power struggle. They are executives who are on the top of the law firm pyramid. Enterprises are law firm’s partners. Law firms fight each other to become a partner of business. They struggle to be close to power and to become a slave of money. There are some lawyers who want be the partners of commoners as well. They are willing to be the spokesperson for the underprivileged. It is a story about partner; the one who is going to stay by your side and fight together in front of law.
Rating:7/10
Remark: There are a lot of feelings among good-natured lawyers. There are two lawyers urging someone to be in good side rather than dark side. As a result, there is emotional victory.
Investigator Mariko Season 2 [科捜研の女 2](Japanese Drama 2000)
Synopsis:
In season 2, Mariko is now installed as the head of forensic team that consist of new colleagues. As usual, she goes to investigate unique cases. When there is no physical evidence, she was frustrated. At that time, she persist on finding the evidence on the crime scene no matter how difficult it is. This is the result of the following fact. Truth is always hidden in the crime scene.
Rating:6/10
Remark: There is good amount of different cases to be solved by Mariko. I think it is interesting to have profiler around in forensic team.
Investigator Mariko Season 3 [科捜研の女 3](Japanese Drama 2001)
Synopsis:
Once again, this season 3 is based on Mariko with yet another new forensic team. There are homicide cases as well as one non-homicide case. Indeed, there are a lot of mystery where Mariko is unable to solve. She gets inspiration from unrelated comment from her former colleague. You shall see how she solve with her sense of justice and her weapon: science.
Rating:6/10
Remark: This drama serial is becoming stale although the cases are different and unique its own aspects.
Team Medical Dragon 2[医龍 2](Japanese Drama 2007)
Synopsis:
Asada Ryutaro returns to the Japanese medical scene. This time, the Japanese medical care system has changed. In this scenario, there is inflation – a constant price rise- is affecting hospitals’ cost. As a result, some hospitals close down because their costs exceed their revenues. Therefore, Meishin has to survive by any means. An investment firm comes into the picture. What lies in this drama serial? A takeover takes its place…Asada Ryutaro has to form new team…
Rating: 7/10
Remark: I cannot simply believe that there are so many new surgery methods to save people’s life. It is quite interesting to see so excellent doctors in a team to save people in operation theatre.
Echelon Conspiracy (American Movie 2009)
Synopsis:
The story is about a main male lead character, Max Peterson. He receives unique mobile phone that is not sold in the market. A unknown messenger sends him text through that mobile phone. Every text message he receives is telling him messages.
These messages lead him to earn big money by doing simple task. He still does not know who sends these text messages. Eventually, he is confronted by the FBI and security head in the casino. The following questions lie in this movie: How is he going to do with these kind of situations? How can he find out the identity of that unknown messenger who send these text messages.
Rating:6/10
Remark: It is very sci-fi based movie. It is interesting to see how he earns a lot of money by following the instructions from text messages. However, the plot has very little substance to be excited of.
Investigator Mariko Season 4 [科捜研の女 4](Japanese Drama 2002)
Synopsis:
Continuing from season 3, Mariko came back to work for Kyoto police again as forensic investigator. For this season, it comprises another set of murder cases. For the finale case in this season 4, we will get to see interesting thing associated with Detective Koba. Keep on watching this drama serial…
Rating:6/10
Remark: The cases are different in many aspects but there is no excitement factor. However, it is interesting to see how Mariko cracks the cases.
Love in Heaven [하늘이시여 ](Korean Drama 2005)
Synopsis:
Ji Young Sun suffered a double tragedy: 1) She could not marry her beloved man because Kim Mi Hyang stole him. 2)Her parents was killed in the fire. As a result, she lost her mind. At that time, she gave birth to a girl named Lee Ja Kyung. She did not know that she did gave birth. Therefore, she left Ja Kyung to her close friend. Fast forward... In few years later, she came back from America in the quest to find Ja Kyung. In this time, she was married to Gu Wang Mo's father and gave birth (in good mental state) to another baby girl, named Gu Seul Ah. Finally, she found Ja Kyung by hiring private investigation. She does not intend to tell Ja Kyung that she is her mother. She want Ja Kyung to feel peace and blissful. It is done by marrying Ja Kyung to Gu Wang Mo. There is a love triange between Ja Kyung, Gu Wang Mo, and Kang Ye-ri (Mi Hyang's daughter). What store in the show: Who get the heart of Gu Wang Mo? When will the secret of Ja Kyung's real mother discovered? How will Ja Kyung deal with this secret?
Rating:7/10
Remark: I watched this show because my mother bought DVD based on her friend's recommendation. This show consists of awful 85 episodes. I took two months to watch it slowly. The main attraction of this show is the love triangle and Ja Kyung. The most sad moment should be the last three episodes.
Tony Del Piero wrote and posted at at 7:10 pm
