Sunday, November 29, 2009

Trip to Malaysia and An Application of Microeconomics' Externality


I am on the trip with my mother’s family to Cameroon Highlight followed by Genting. My mother needed my presence to assist her for the strength tasks. To travel there, an uncle from mother’s family drove a van from Singapore, Johor Baru, Ipoh, and then Cameroon Highlight. We went through highways and various points where we are exiting the highways. On the way along the highways, the green scene was always the same all lower half of Malaysia along with same kinds of colourful advertisement. From Singapore to an ‘unpopular waterfall’ located near to Ipoh, it took around 12 hours. At that time, breakfast, lunch, and toilet break occurred in between those 12 hours. At the location, where there was waterfall, apparently, a Malay guy seems to ask unreasonable entry fee (to view waterfall) from another uncle. Eventually, two uncles talked the Malay ‘boss of that place’. Eventually, we can enter without hitch. I suspected that there was no need to pay entrance fee.


In this incident, it reminded me of Microeconomics’ Coase Theorem problem. With the reference to Katz and Rosen (and Morgan *latest edition*) textbook, there are horizontal marginal revenue (MR), upward-sloping private marginal cost (PMC), and upward-sloping social marginal cost (SMC) schedules in the above diagram. The rationale of MR schedule adopting horizontal slope is that the firm is assumed to be price taker. In this diagram, SMC is steeper than PMC, illustrating that social cost is more costly than private cost to the firm. The mathematical definition of SMC is the sum of PMC and MEC (marginal efficiency cost). Coase Theorem says that if a property right is assigned to one party, the other party will want to negotiate with one party. Consequently, both parties will reach socially optimal quantity (Q) of waste. The negotiation is basically on how much the other party should compensate that party with property right for dumping the (chemical) waste. That is, waste can be dump into either river or air. It is because one affected party will suffer the consequence of the waste dumped by unaffected party.
For example, affected party can be represented by fishery firm that earn income by selling the fishes it caught on the river. Unaffected party may be the chemical firm that produce something and dump the chemical waste into the river. If there is no property right, the chemical firm does not care about the fishery firm. In attempt to maximise the profit, the chemical firm just produce Q1 of waste, where PMC intersects MR.
If the property right belongs to the chemical firm, the chemical firm is willing to produce Q* of waste if the compensation is greater than the incremental gain from producing Q1. That incremental gain is the difference between MR and PMC. This can be represented by a triangle CEG. In this case, fishery firm is willing to pay the maximum amount, which equates to MEC. If MEC exceeds MR-PMC, the opportunity for a bargain exists.
If the chemical firm is producing all level of Q of waste left of Q*, the incremental payment made by the fishery firm is less than the amount required by the chemical firm. In this case, the production takes its place until Q*. If the chemical firm is producing all level of Q of waste right of Q*, the incremental payment made by the fishery firm is more than the amount required by the chemical firm. The conclusion is that fishery and chemical firms can strike a bargain between them as long as the chemical firm agree not to produce beyond Q* in return for some compensation.
Similarly, if the property right belongs to the fishery firm, the fishery firm requires a compensation that is greater than MEC. The chemical firm is willing to pay any amount less than MR-PMC. If MR-PMC exceeds MEC, there is opportunity for the bargain between fishery and chemical firms.
If the property right exists, there will be socially optimal solution for both parties. This is an example that it illustrates the initial disagreement over how much the entering fee costs especially when they are not legalised to do it. It is no man land from my point of view. Now, we were heading to Cameron Highlight which is opposite direction from that place. On the way to Cameron Highlight, I passed by a waterfall there. A lot of people were viewing there and shops were open. It was different from what I saw earlier. I suspect that it was due to unreasonable fee.
The path to Cameron Highlight is to ‘climb up’ through the hill by car. The path has a lot of curve bends with a lot of blind spots. This path is a good practise if anyone wants to pretend to be Initial D driver like Takumi. I can only say that travelling by car for few long hours can be bitch for everyone including myself. It was so boring.

Investment Style

I know that the economy has its own variables. Some of them are something we all know but others are something we do not know. I also know that all variables always change over time. The time period can vary a lot. Some variables may disappear due to new variables that become more powerful to enter into micro and macro picture.

I spent 3 days to read Warren Buffett Partnership Limited's annual letters from 1959-1969. Because of the first paragraph in this section, Buffett increases his investment style from one style, three styles, to four styles over time. Obviously, I know that it is due to law of diminishing return given the condition of the stock market at that time. Two obvious variables are buyers and sellers in the stock market. The other variables are not so obvious until we see them appearing themselves into our analytical picture.

In this section, it is an opportunity for us to recognise that we need to adopt new investment styles when something new appear in our radar. Consider the Say's Law: Supply creates its own demand. For simple example, some people offer plumbing services for those who cannot fit the water leakage and miscellaneous stuffs at home. Once those type of people know their services, they will demand for that services. It is probably classic simple example of that Say's Law. Similarly, we see something unique in the stock market. In this case, this may be something that we can make profit through particular type of investment that need to be designed on our own. Then, we should demand for this unique kind after we have developed. In short, when the economy supply unique situations in the stock market, we should demand them by developing our own investment style that enable to make profit by investing them. That is what I perceive when Buffett expands his own investment styles in order to make more profit in his partnership.

Beside that, I find that value investing is synonymous to the modern economics. In the proper sense, value investing is about investing stocks that are underpriced by Mr Market, which can be thought as aggregation of all buyers and sellers. Over time, stocks reach its intrinsic values, which may be our exit strategy: selling those stocks at intrinsic value. In similar fashion, when the output deviate from its natural level of output, output will return to its natural level over time. That natural level of output can be thought as full employment level of output.

Writing

So far, I have completed writting two pieces of my own works for Macroeconomics and Investment. Although it is always good to read what I have written in case of any possible errors, I never like to re-read my own works. It is kinda boring to do that. It is really hard to kick that habit.

As for Macroeconomics, it should clarify better for my friend. There are so much new information in the latest syllabus that is so interesting to learn. Small new parts of International Economics and International Macroeconomics are added into the existing Macroeconomics. They are really interesting to use. I am very hopeful that, in few decades later, more international context can be exposed to all intermediate macroeconomcs students. Today, international context is too little in any intermediate macroeconomics course. All that said, I recognise the important of International Economics and International Macroeconomics because the whole world is emphasising the importance of globalisation. You can easily see that a housing crisis in US pull the trigger that cause every country, if not all, into depression mode. It should be enough reason to justify the learning of Macroeconomics in international context rather than closed economy which is largely emphasised today.

As for Investment, I am hopeful to achieve small and modest success for the investment that I will do over few decades. Most people with few years working experience should have realise that active income from salaries is not enough to sustain their lifestyle that include expensive purchases. These expensive purchases are the kind of toys that keep them comfortable. I remembered that when I was young, being passionate about HI-FI, which is expensive hobby, somebody who has enough working experience told me that his active income is not enough to enable him to buy desired home theater system. He also thought that it would be nice to have some amount of passive income that may come from investment to supplement his purchases. Too bad, nearly everyone is looking for short-cut to make quick cash. At this point, investment is very important thing that everybody must have in order to grow their own savings. These savings are meant to see them through their retirement age. Investment comes in many different forms: start a new business, invest in financial instrument, and etc. Make your decision wisely regarding your choice of the type of investment.

Books

Book Title: Value investing: from Graham to Buffett and beyond
Author: Bruce Greenwald, Judd Kahn, Paul D. Sonkin, and Michael van Biema
Rating:9/10
Remark:
It is very good book showing the classic Graham's investment methodology in the modern language as well as new methodologies from value investors. Best of all, Bruce is able to show relevant case study for modern investment world. We have to remember that the railroad case studies in the Security Analysis book are almost irrelevant in the modern investment context. Furthermore, it is insightful to see how Graham's disciples and value investing practitioners do such analysis on the financial statements, especially balance sheet. On top of that, different value investors have different ways to identify the mispriced shares, which confirm my suspicion. I intend to buy this book for my own value investment practice. It is great collection to my bookshelf.

Book Title: The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method To High Return
Author: Mohnish Pabrai
Rating:7/10
Remark:
I happen to know this book when I was reading an interested value investor's blog. I learn that the author has started investment fund few years ago. Hence, I borrow this book to learn more about him and his investing philosophy. This book is fun and easy to read. He gives a lot of interesting real-life examples to illustrate his investing philosophy. I think it enlightens me in many aspects. Although there is nothing about investment methods he develops, he clearly shows how he uses with various methods from Graham, Greenblatt, and Kelly. Heads, I wins' Tails, I don't lose much!

Book Title: The Little Book That Beats The Market
Author: Joel Greenblatt
Rating: 10/10
Remark:
After hearing 'noise' about this book from value investors, I read it during the trip to Malaysia. It is easy and friendly to read. We do not need to have finance background to understand what his style of investment is like. He is spot-on on how to identify quality companies at bargain prices in his own way. This is something logical that I definitely agree. This book is way better than Secrets of Millionaire Investors by Adam Khoo and Conrad. His magic formula is relatively easy to use and understand.

Movies

Goemon (Japanese Movie 2009)
Synopsis:
Goemon is historical character who stole gold and valuables from the rich and then gave them to the poor. This movie intends to portray what Goemon does at that time. Goemon grew up as samurai after receiving the training under Hanzo Hattori, the legendary samurai. This was under the command of Oda Nobunaga, the ruler of Japan. Eventually, when Goemon's task to look after Nobunaga's niece Chacha ends after Chacha is sent to another province, Goemon chooses to be free man instead of samurai. As per historical record, Nobunaga is murdered by his man, Mitsuhide Akechi. In fact, it was arranged secretly by Nobunaa's right-hand man, Toyotomi Hideyoshi. Once the secret is out of the bag, the hell has gone loose. What will Goemon do?
Rating:7/10
Remark: It somehow educates me little about Japanese history. At least, I roughly know who Goemon, Hanzo Hattori, Nobunaga, Tokugawa Leyasu and goes on. I have been seen these names often each time I look at Japanese historical movies/animes. The story is decent enough to watch.

Insadong Scandal (Korean Movie 2009)
Synopsis:
The story starts with Tae-jin Bae, antique dealer and curator stole the march by buying a Korean national treasure, the painting, from another antique dealer. She goes on to announce publicity that painting and she also hire well-known painting restorer, Kang-jun Lee. Kang-jun Lee needs 1 year to restore this painting successfully. Tae-jin Bae is plotting against her partners as well as making more money by dealing with Japanese guy from black market. Tae-jin Bae has the intention to kill Kang-jun Lee after Kang-jun Lee successfully restores the painting. Meanwhile Kang-jun Lee knows that Tae-jin Bae steals the important painting from his home, which is temple. So, Kang-jun Lee intends to get that painting back from Tae-jin Bae. How shall Kang-jun Lee do it?
Rating: 8/10
Remark: The story is slightly intelligent and entertaining. There are a lot of plots, where there are many backstabbing scenarios rolling over in that movie. No doubt, we will get a lot of pop corn on how people create fake painting. You should watch this movie right away.

Desperate Housewives Season 5 (American Drama 2008)
Synopsis:
Season 5 opens its story with accident that killed a mother and a daughter. Mike and Susan are in that accident too. Lynette has her hair grown after losing her hair during cancer fight in season 4. Orson has gone to prison in attempt to be with Bree. Bree is miserable initally but Katherine helps her to recover. Because of that, Bree does not become alcohol addict. As a result, Bree becomes successful businesswoman, doing the catering business. Gabrille gives birth of 2 girls and she becomes housewife, supporting her family. Gabrille's husband, Carlos, as a blind man now, is taking a job for the massage services. The father who has lost his wife and his daughter during aforementioned accident is plotting a revenge on Mike. That father marries Edie. Subsequently, he and Edie move to Wisteria Lane. Will his revenge succeed?
Rating:8/10
Remark: The story gets better. Lynette is really nice supporter in her family. I kinda want a wife like her. I think Felicity Huffman, acting Lynette, is really good actress with realistic expression. I remember how she tried to give the hint that a person commits suicide in Season 4. It was so realistic. Now, Lynette is finding her way protect her family in terms of financial and maturity.

East of Eden (Korean Drama 2008)
Synopsis:
In the beginning of the story, Lee Dong Chul as a about 5 years old child was being happy to be with his father, Lee Gi Chul. Lee Gi Chul is working as coal miner and also represent all coal miners as labour union leader. Shin Tae Hwan, as a penniless orphan, decided not to be with his first love, Jae Hee. It was because he wanted to be in rich family by marrying Oh Yoon Hee. Oh family business also owns coal mine that Lee Gi Chul worked in. President Oh, Oh Yoon Hee's father, asked Shin Tae Hwan to handle the demand of labour union from coal mine amicably. But Shin Tae Hwan did not do that. Shin Tae Hwan decided to use explosives to bury Lee Gi Chul, who was going to work in coal mine with his work colleagues. Lee Dong Chul overheard the plan of bury his father. Unfortunately, this killed Lee Gi Chul.

Before that plan commenced, Lee Gi Chul's wife Yang Chun Hee gave birth to another baby boy, Lee Dong Wook. At the same time, Oh Yoon Hee gave birth to first baby boy, Shin Myung Hun. They were at the same hospital. Their babies were manned by Yoo Mi Ae, who had her baby (that baby is the blood of Shin Tae Hwan) killed by Shin Tae Hwan's paid men. Because of that, Yoo Mi Ae wanted to take revenge at Shin Tae Hwan by switching Lee Dong Wook with Shin Myung Hun. As a result, Lee Dong Wook took the identity of Shin Myung Hun while Shin Myung Hun took the identity of Lee Dong Wook. The hell went loose when the secret was revealed by Yoo Mi Ae in few decades later.
Rating:9/10
Remark: I happened to know this show when my mother and I were browsing Korean drama dvds. The dvd cover and its synopsis attracted me. Therefore, I watched whole 56 episodes, enjoying every single episode. The story is very lucid to follow. It is quite interesting to see how two families fight over the Shin Tae Hwan's bad deeds. The ending is quite good.

Team Batista No Eiko (Japanese Drama 2008)
Synopsis:
Adapted from a best-selling novel written by Takeru Kaidō, the story is about the mystery case of murder that takes its place in the surgery room. Batista is a surgery technique that cut small slice of tissue of the heart muscle that is infected and then sew the cutted part. As a result, the size of the heart is reduced somehow from the visual point of view. It is the best alternative to heart transplant surgery. There is a surgery team that specialises in Batista surgery. There are 26 successful cases of Batista surgery. It spells good news for the most difficult cardiac surgery - Batista surgery. However, after 26 cases, there are deaths for adults and no death for children. The Tojo University Hospital where Batista team works at asked Taguchi Kohei to investigate the mystery of consecutive deaths after failed Batista surgeries from case 27 to case 29. Shiratori Keisuke forcefully investigates this mystery with Taguchi. Is it medical malpractice or murder?
Rating: 10/10
Remark:
I knew the context of the drama at the moment I saw the title of this drama. It is because I have watched movie version of this similar story. However, there is slight difference in the story although the truth of this mystery is the same. Drama version somehow outperform movie version in terms of details, excitement, suspense, and flow of the story. I guess it is due to the fact that the large details of story are easily spread over 11 episodes. I think Hiroshi Abe in the movie version is better actor than Nakamura Toru in drama version for the lead male character, Shiratori Keisuke. Everybody should watch this drama.

Tony Del Piero wrote and posted at at 5:00 pm