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Real-Time Macroeconomics Environment
Armed with knowledge about the rational and adpative expectations, Bernanke has taken to new level of Macroeconomics situation that has never dealt with before. All practising economists have different opinions on where the economy is heading to with two rounds of quantitative easing made by Federal Reserve.
At the same time, currency war is about to start if 20 major countries do not intend to co-operate. Those countries with heavy debt -America, Europe, UK- are really anxious to depreciate their currencies to cheapen their domestic goods in order to increase GDP.
It is about the time for academic professors to develop new theory to explain and address the solution of the economic problem that Japan and America are facing now. I am expecting to see a few unrelaistic assumptions.
Smartphones and Pads
Practically, every mobile phone manufacturers and computer manufacturers are in the rat race, making smartphones and tablet pads that are in hot demand today. When these items are in hot demand, the money that are readily parted by the potential users of these items will be in the hand of these manufactuers very quickly.
Few weeks ago, a local blog critises people for wasting money on spending smartphones. When compared to normal phone, the mobile phone bill for smartphone is clearly more expensive than theone for normal phone. In my point of view, they are wasting money if they cannot utilise every function of the smartphones every day. I know one friend of mine, who bought top end Nokia model (before smartphones appears). He hardly use 90% of his phone's function. It is classic pure money waste!
Lately, there are more and more tech venture capitalists thinking highly of android OS. When come to smartphone, you need to be extremely concerned about OS -Windows 7 vs Android vs Symbian vs iOS4-before you buy one. It will determine directly to your usage experience daily.
More and more companies and start-up are warming themselves making tablet pad against Apple's Ipad. The crucial thing for pad is to have sufficient screen size and easy-to-use feel. For any other functions and specifications are up to people preferences. I do crave to have pad because I will like to use it to read e-books on mobile. I am waiting for the right tablet pad. My ideal tablet pad is to have right screen size for reading and 'pen' to write on the files.
I saw Amazon's kindle in the MRT train when someone, who left for Dover MRT station. It seems to me like a small toy. The main attraction of this Kindle is no backlight in the LCD screen and light. It justifies for the of reading e-books.
Cloud Computering
I first hear cloud computering when I read Nu Horizons' quarterly conference call transcript. When I see a word 'cloud-ready', I spend some time to know what cloud ready exactly means. It leads me to the knowledge of cloud computering. After learning briefly about it, I find that it is good solution and has definite future. Concerning good solution, it can greatly reduce the software piracy as long as software makers know how to charge reasonably. Concerning definite future, I really think it is great to install software in the server, not in our computer. With this, we can just access software online. This means that we save our hard disk space by not installing software in our computer. It is brilliant concept because it can result in reducing infrastructure and software installation costs. There is big downside. When your computer is offline, you cannot access the software. There is a need for the solution to bypass or eliminate this problem.
Cloud computering is not widely adopted. Some companies are slowly taking steps to implement cloud computering system. Microsoft is gearing itself building softwares that support cloud computers. Even computer manufacturers are joining to test their upcoming products that are suitable for cloud computering system.
My friend, who work in NTU dealing with IT system, tells me that his superior knows someone in the company that deal with cloud computering. So, they interact with that someone to find out more about cloud computering. There are two choice of different software from two different companies for cloud computering system. Eventually, it has chosen one of two softwares.
Most importantly, we need to do cost-benefit analysis whether it is useful to implement cloud computering system in a company. Unfortunately, there is too little information to figure out. I strongly believe that cloud computering at its initial stage can be costly for SME. Once everybody embrace cloud computering, the cost can fall over time as technology progress for better. There will be one day that everybody know what cloud computering is. Today, not many people know.
Entrepreneurship
It seems to me that entrepreneurs who have prior working experience are more likely to start their own businesses in the same industry they understand. Therefore, there is circle of competence whereby they feel that the industries they have worked have so much potential to do businesses in.
Last Tuesday, 'My Paper' features a Singaporean Chinese guy, who starts working in retail industry as a delivery boy at age of 18 after completing 'O' level. Being exposed to the retail industry, he feels that it is very promising. Therefore, he decides to start his own business in that industry by borrowing $300,000 from his father. Six months later, he pays back the same amount to his father in full. Times goes by, his company is generating net profit of $1 million.
What can we learn from this article? Here is my conclusion. We should be doing things that are in our circle of competence. Knowing how things works, you can extend that knowledge to the point, where you need to improvise on. For instance, if you see something lacking in the industry you know very well, you should pounce and improvise on it. That is where you can get customers directly without any competition in the short time. Once competition reins in, you need to develop solid business relationships with your customers, who are very likely to do business with you again. By then, this will be your competitive advantage by middle run. In long run, you need to be innovative to maintain business above the competition in the industry.
Business Management
I talk with my friend, who used to be my lecturer about the management problem that many companies may have. Here is the situation I first hand experience it personally. Person A relays his instruction to Person B who, in turn, passes instruction in her own word, to Person C. Finally, Person C tells me in fragmented sentences.
People in older generation tend to tell me in broken English. Over years, I develop a skill that enables me to join all broken English and fill up the missing blanks to form one or few proper sentences. In fact this skill can be developed by taking English class seriously in primary school and secondary school. You should have remembered these exercises where you have to fill up the blanks in between each sentence. Most of the time, I get their ideas right.
Therefore, I have good idea what Person C tells me. I have done exactly what Person C says. Suddenly Person A tells me directly by email, concerning whether the instruction is relayed correctly. 98% of the meaning of instruction from A to B to C to me is exact but the remaining 2% did not appeared correctly. It is the result of confusion over few weeks. It is the result of communication distortion. My friend entirely agrees with me and tell me that he is dealing this problem with auditors at his own seminar on the next day.
What happen is that the meaning of Action A initiated in the first place is not consistent with the meaning of Action B taken place in later for the same task. Hence, it is most likely bringing confusion. I give a thought about it. The solution is to understand the original message/instruction 100% before relaying to the other person. To do so, message/instruction should be short and simple that idiots can understand. In addition, if it is urgent, it should be construct with the feeling that the receiver can sense right away. It is the classic example where 'Blink' book written by Malcolm Gladwell illustrates the importance of sending the right message. Repeat the message/instruction once again will do good as sender and receiver will double check themselves whether the meaning has deviated away from previous message/instruction.
Books
Book Title: Panic: The Story of Modern Financial Insanity
Author: Michael Lewis
Rating:8/10
Remark:
It is very good book illustrate panic in the financial market in America. However, avid readers of Michael Lewis' book will find some chapters familiar because they are copied from Lewis' previous books. I think Lewis has illustrated sub-prime mortgage market very well.
Book Title: Damn Right: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger
Author: Janet Lowe
Rating:10/10
Remark:
There are a lot of side accounts about the relationship between Munger and Buffett that are not found in any biographies about Buffett. I am truly blown away by simple detail about Munger. The author of this book has done good job.
Book Title: Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Rating:7/10
Remark:
This book is slightly technical surrounding mathematics and statistics. His idea about black swan is very interesting insight to learn from. However, I will like to believe that readers with good understanding of mathematics and statistics will enjoy this book much more than the ones without them. It is really apt to believe for sure what is wrong and give no face value to what is right.
Book Title: The Little Book of Main Street Money: 21 Simple Truths that Help Real People Make Real Money
Author: Jonathan Clements
Rating:7/10
Remark: First few chapters about personal finance is excellent but next few chapters about stock investment and diversification are slightly disappointed. Overall, it is a must to read first few chapters, which are relevant to us.
Movies and Dramas
The Sorcerer's Apprentice (Hollywood Movie 2010)
Synopsis:
A sorcerer master has taken in three students -two males and one female- and trained them. One day, one of them -one of two males- decide to be traitor, killing his master with a female evil sorcerer. In the process of killing, these two evil people need to get a scroll to learn a magic that unleash undead people. But two loyal students -one male and one female- prevent them from obtaining scroll but failed to prevent the death of their master. At the same time, two evil aforementioned people are trapped into the items by one male loyal student. The last word from going-to-be-dead master tells him to find someone who can take over him. Can he find appropriate one?
Rating:7/10
Remark: Entertaining story.
Wall Street 2: The Money Never Sleep (Hollywood Movie 2010)
Synopsis:
Gordon Gekko is released from the prison in few years later. After that, in few years time, he wrote a book about financial housing market. At the same time, Jake Moore, boyfriend of Gekko's daughter, befriend him to express his thought about him and the housing market. Meanwhile, Moore's working place, investment bank, is heading to bankruptcy. What will Jake Moore do? What can Jake Moore deal with Gordon Gekko?
Rating:7/10
Remark: Excellent story that gives good motion picture illustrating how financial meltdown is like in micro aspect.
Legend of The Fist: The Return of Chen Zhen (Hong Kong Movie 2010)
Synopsis:
Chen Zhen tries to unify China people to fight against Japanese who is about occupying part of China. He is on the mission identifying who are working for Japanese.
Rating:6/10
Remark: Decent story with nice fighting actions
Tony Del Piero wrote and posted at at 6:19 pm
