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Speculation
I never like to assign any value on upcoming news about a company such as new project. Whenever I read free local newspaper's financial articles, I always see them saying a certain financial institution upgrade its valuation on a firm. SGX's valuation has upgraded just because of its action to add some ADRs into its listing. I find it amazing because it is hard to conjure concrete financial number out of the blue now when the numbers can only be revealed gradually from few months time to few years time. Why pay the price or premium for such kind of prospects when the future outcome cannot be guaranteed? If you are doing it, you are doing speculation, not investment.
I think the degree of speculation is sky high on Genting stock. I find it amazing and amusing to see Genting to rise from $0.70 to $2 plus over last two months. I will like to think that market participants have placed too much emphasis on recent quarterly earnings. When we look at quarterly earnings, that earnings are subject to the business cycle fluctuation. We should be looking at annual earning that aggregates all four quarterly earnings and make a conclusion whether its earning has improved compared to last year. There is indication that Singapore's economy is improving but the question - can it be sustained over few years from now- has not yet answered. With blurry view of rear-view mirror, it is difficult to tell whether Genting's price per share is reasonable for a given recent exciting quarterly earning.
In the short run, speculation may help you to make some money and in the long run, your profit will be ultimately negative if you continues to speculate. I find that it is extremely dangerous to speculate without any solid logical reasoning or proof.
Singapore
I personally think that Singapore is growing too fast in late 2000s and 2010s after resolving social problems in 1990s. The sign of growing too fast should be obvious for the following reasons.
1) In 1990s, Singapore was riding on a good time when it was known to be one of four Asian Tigers. As far as I recalled based on what I saw in 1990s, there was not much area development other than adding Suntec, which was quite big project. I only saw government taking steps to resolve social problems in teenagers. In addition, cable project that cable was to be installed island has completed somewhere in between 1990s and 2000s. In 2000s, some existing shopping centres especially Marina Square and Wisma Atria renovated itself to attract more shoppers. Circle line project has been completed and is in full operation recently. Suddenly, new MRT line project commences (currently, we can see some construction sites around Bugis, Bukit Timah and elsewhere). Furthermore, there are a few numbers of new shopping centres in central area. Not only that, there are more foreigners moving around in Singapore in any time as in I always see him in central area as well as, sometimes, at heartland area. Islandwide-Fibre optics installation has commenced That is why I feel that Singapore is fast growing. For such growth, we must be prepared to see a rising cost of living. In no time, for a given growth towards modernised country, it is fair to expect that Singapore's cost of living can be similar to Japan's in a decade time or longer.
Humans and Their Behaviours
After reading this article, Feynman has my respect for his attitude of learning despite of his fame in Physics and interest in getting explanation simple. I wish that I can do what he tries to resolve the puzzle towards the solution in the investming way. I am type of person who slowly progress from bottom to top in each area. Although I may make some mistakes due to inexperience, my mind somehow store some memory of important things that enable me to pick valuable experiences that enable me to detect such problem.
Beside that, after reading the 'Outlier' book, it has somehow validated my concept. I once told my concept to my female classmate that all humans living in the same set of living condition and same type of parenting will produce the same result. It was quite unfortunate for her not to comprehend it and she didn't agree. This 'Outlier' book clearly outlines some factors in some people's success. It is really brillant book.
Book
Book Title: Outliers: The Story of Success
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
Rating:9.5/10
Remark: I hear this book from a website in my favourite reading list every morning. The content of this book somehow interests me because I do want to know what causes success resulting a person as a outlier. Surprisingly, the author connects some academic stuffs coming from Organisational Behaviour module (from your management course) to real life examples. He shows the success real life stories as well as failure real life stories. With both of them, it is getting more obvious to understand how success comes to a person, who is extremely interested in doing things. It is highly recommend for anyone. It can define your life better after you have read it.
Dramas and Movies
Joker: Yurusarezaru Sousakan (Japanese Drama 2010)
Synopsis:
Kazuyoshi Date , an inspector on the Kanagawa Division police force, is not popular figure with his colleagues because he is an odd one. However, he produces excellent investing results which his colleagues fail to do so. He questions every detail until he finds out the actual truth behind the murders. However, given such truth, these criminals can never go to jail due to insufficient proof or connection. He decides to go to other path to prosecute them. What is his other path?
Rating:7/10
Remark: Interesting drama with little twist in the end.
Tony Del Piero wrote and posted at at 12:10 am
